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NFL Playoff Predictions: Picking Eight Division Winners, Six Wild-card Teams For 2024 Season

(24 votes: Baca, Band, Battista, Bergman, Bhanpuri, Cersosimo, Chadiha, Edholm, Filice, Florio, Gonzales, Grant, Jones-Drew, Kownack, Magdziuk, Mariucci, Okada, Patra, Rank, Rosenthal, Ross, Shook, Walker, Zierlein.)

2) Dallas Cowboys (+185)4 votes: Abdoo, Blair, Parr, Reuter.

The NFC East hasn't had a repeat champion since the Eagles won three straight following realignment in 2002. Our analysts see that trend continuing this season (sorry, Cowboys!), with Philadelphia receiving 24 first-place votes and earning a playoff spot on all 28 of our analysts' ballots. Dallas is still predicted to be the conference's fifth seed, receiving the most total points among all NFC wild-card contenders. A playoff berth would be nothing new for Dallas, which is one of just 10 teams with double-digit playoff appearances this millennium. However, of those 10 teams, all but the Cowboys have advanced to a conference title game; in fact, the other nine have all won at least one Lombardi Trophy since 2000.

1 Under-the-radar Player For Every NFL Team's 2024 Playoff Hopes, From Roger McCreary To Cooper Beebe

Jul 26, 2024; Oxnard, CA, USA; Dallas Cowboys guards Zack Martin (70) and Cooper Beebe (56) block during training camp at the River Ridge Playing Fields in Oxnard, Californian. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Let's add fellow rookie offensive lineman Tyler Guyton here as well, as each has big shoes to fill along the Cowboys' offensive line. While the Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb connection remains one of the league's most dangerous, the team's lack of receiving depth will put pressure on Dallas's run game to step up.

With Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle as top backs, there's going to need to be lots of space for them to operate. Beebe, who like Guyton has earned rave reviews this preseason, is a straight-up bouncer who can play multiple positions and toss defensive linemen out of the club from just about anywhere.

Top Five Chargers Futures Bets For The 2024 NFL Season

The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West for two primary reasons: They've been exceptionally good, and the rest of the division has been exceptionally awful.

In fact, Kansas City has won at least 11 games every year during its record run of eight consecutive AFC West titles. How many double-digit victory seasons has the rest of the division produced in the past eight years? Four.

Heck, the Chiefs have more Super Bowl appearances since 2018 (four) — and as many titles (three) — as the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers have total playoff appearances.

So of course Kansas City is overwhelmingly favored to win its ninth straight AFC West crown. But one team has a (slim) chance to end K.C.'s dynasty, it's probably the Chargers.

Los Angeles has a new coach (Jim Harbaugh), a franchise quarterback (Justin Herbert) and a revamped defense — as well as the division's second-highest consensus win total (8.5, Over -142 at FanDuel). Same goes for the Chargers' odds to win Super Bowl 59 (+5000 at BetMGM) and to win the AFC West (+390 at Caesars Sportsbook).

Does that mean it's wise to bet on L.A. Dethroning the Chiefs this year? No. But it is smart to invest in these five Chargers futures bets.

Here are five bets to make on the Chargers:

Chargers Over 8.5 wins (-142, FanDuel)

The Chargers haven't surpassed their preseason win total projection since 2018 (the franchise's penultimate season in San Diego). What's more, they've won at least nine games just six times since 2011.

That recent history suggests it's prudent to go Under 8.5 with the 2024 Chargers. However, that history neglects to mention these names: Mike McCoy, Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley.

Those are the head coaches who manned the sidelines in Los Angeles and San Diego from 2013-2023. And before that, Chargers fans endured six seasons with Norv Turner steering the ship.

In other words, horrendous head coaching hires are a big reason why the Bolts have been one of the NFL's biggest underachievers most of this century.

It would appear that Los Angeles finally fixed that problem with the hiring of Jim Harbaugh, who returns to the NFL after leading Michigan to the 2023 national championship.

Harbaugh inherits a roster that is far better than last year's 5-12 record. It might even be better than the one that went 10-7 in 2022 and choked away a wild-card win at Jacksonville.

Another thing Harbaugh inherits: a soft opening schedule. The Chargers have eight winnable games — Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, Broncos, Cardinals, Saints, Browns and Titans — and a bye in the first 10 weeks.

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Chargers to make the playoffs (+112, FanDuel)

Los Angeles essentially is a 50-50 bet to make the playoffs for just the fourth time since a four-year run from 2006-09.

Heading into the season, FanDuel sportsbook offers the best odds on the Chargers reaching the postseason (+112 yes/-138 no) by a smidge over BetMGM, Caesars and DraftKings (all three are +110/-130).

The plus-money price adds to the intrigue of this futures wager — and, again, it's because of the Chargers' easy-to-navigate early schedule.

Los Angeles probably will be favored in six of its first nine games and should only be a slight underdog — if that — in the others (at Pittsburgh in Week 3, vs. Kansas City in Week 4, at Cleveland in Week 9).

Even if the Chargers come out of that stretch at 6-3, several victories await on the back end of the schedule. That includes a season-closing stretch against Tampa Bay (home), Denver (home), New England (road), and Las Vegas (road).

What will it take to nab an AFC playoff berth? Probably a 10-7 record (with 11-6 being a lock). Both seem achievable for Los Angeles, which has only four games against opponents with higher projected win totals: Chiefs (twice), Ravens, and Bengals.

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Chiefs and Chargers to finish 1-2 in AFC West (+140, DraftKings)

This "exacta" result of Kansas City winning the AFC West and Los Angeles finishing second is the clear-cut favorite among the 12 potential outcomes. (The second favorite is Chiefs/Raiders at +370.)

To understand why, just look at each team's consensus projected win total: Chiefs 11.5, Chargers 8.5, Raiders 6.5, Broncos 5.5.

And to understand why it makes sense to bet on a Chiefs/Chargers 1-2 divisional finish, just review the previous two Chargers NFL futures recommendations.

It's not exactly a major leap to predict that Kansas City will win another division title. Assuming that happens, the only way this wager loses is if Los Angeles massively underperforms against a bunch of inferior teams, and Denver and/or Las Vegas exceed expectations.

So let's say the Chargers fall to 8-9. The only way they wouldn't finish second is if the Raiders beat their win total by at least two games or the Broncos do the same by at least three. Both are highly unlikely.

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Gus Edwards Over 625.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)

Harbaugh was an NFL quarterback for 14 years, so he understands the desire to throw the pigskin all over the field. But he's also a disciple of Mike Ditka, which means he appreciates smashmouth football.

So although Justin Herbert is an elite QB, the thinking here is that Harbaugh will attempt to establish the Chargers' identity as a physical football team.

That mentality would certainly bode well for L.A.'s offensive line (ranked in the top 10 by multiple outlets) and the lead running back Gus Edwards.

As was the case during his first five years with Baltimore, Edwards will have to share backfield duties. And once again, it'll be with J.K. Dobbins, who spent his first three seasons (2020, 2022 and 2023) with the Ravens. However, Edwards will receive the bulk of the workload — and he's been very productive in that role when healthy.

The 29-year-old has compiled at least 711 rushing yards in his four healthy seasons (including a career-high 810 last season). He also averages 4.9 yards per carry. Another bonus for Edwards: His new quarterback won't steal carries like his old one (Lamar Jackson).

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Joey Bosa Under 8.0 sacks (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)

When on the field, Joey Bosa is still every bit as good as he was when the Chargers drafted the former Ohio State standout No. 3 overall in 2015.

Problem is, the oft-injured Bosa hasn't been able to stay on the field consistently the last two seasons. He played just five games in 2022, then made it through nine games (but only five starts) last season.

Bosa's combined sack total in those 14 contests: nine.

Injuries also limited Bosa to 12 games (7.5 sacks) in 2020 and seven games (5.5 sacks) in 2018. Granted, he collected 10.5 sacks in just 12 games in 2016 — but he was a fresh, 21-year-old rookie at the time. Now he's 29 with a disturbing injury history.

What if Bosa's body holds up in 2024? Well, this futures wager almost certainly won't hit. Because the three times Bosa has played a full season, he's posted sack totals of 12.5 (2017), 11.5 (2019), and 10.5 (2021).

But betting on Bosa to stay healthy is far riskier than betting on him to finish with fewer than eight sacks.

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