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2025 Preseason ACC Football Power Rankings: Where Does UVA Stand?

Last week, we began our preseason ACC power rankings, hitting on the projected top four squads in the conference. We pick up on the series with the middle of the pack.

5. Duke:

Will the momentum continue to build for Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils after a nine win campaign in '24?

Duke enters the 2025 season with the opportunity to put together the best four-year stretch in program history if they can secure another eight-plus win season. That hope largely falls on the back of new QB Darian Mensah after his decision to jump up to the Power Four level. With Mensah looking like an upgrade over a solid Maalik Murphy, this Duke team may be even more talented than a year ago. Running back Jaquez Moore looks to rebound with a solid season after injuries kept him out throughout 2024, to give the Blue Devils a competent ground game to pair with Mensah's arm.

The return of both Terry Moore and Chandler Rivers in the secondary should make this defense formidable once again after a season where the Blue Devil defense finished tied for second in the league with the fewest touchdowns allowed. Both Moore and Rivers are serious All-American candidates, with the days of simply strolling into Wallace Wade Stadium, pushing around a below-average team, and grabbing a 'W' seeming long gone.

6. Pittsburgh:

Things took a turn for the worse in the back half of last year for the Panthers. A magical 7-0 start to the season quickly disappeared with six straight losses to finish out the campaign, but Pat Narduzzi has reason for optimism with the return of the 14 starters — the second most among ACC teams — including quarterback Eli Holstein.

Returning for his second season and his first as the full-time starter in fall camp, Holstein is one to watch in this league after racking up 2,225 passing yards for 17 touchdowns for an offense that looked more like a Big 12 team in the early part of last year.

Desmond Reid returns as an invaluable piece to balance the ground game around Holstein after his first-team all-ACC junior campaign. In 11 games, Reid rushed for 966 yards and five touchdowns while averaging a strong 5.3 yards per carry. If both Reid and Holstein can remain healthy throughout a schedule that appears manageable on paper, expect this offense to take another stride forward, similar to what they did in 2024.

The schedule is tougher than it was a year ago, with early games against Louisville and at Florida State — not to mention a Week 3 collision with West Virginia in a rivalry that has continued to deliver since it was renewed in 2022. The back end of the schedule is where trouble looms with a three-game stretch of Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami to cap the slate.

To me, the Panthers are the biggest sleeper in the entire conference. I would not be shocked to see them finish the year inside the top four and make things interesting at the end of the year to potentially punch a ticket to Charlotte.

7. Louisville:

The Cardinals were picked to finish 5th in the league by the media at ACC kickoff — largely due to what they acquired in USC's Miller Moss, and the two-headed monster of Isaac Brown and budding star Duke Watson in the backfield. Brown nearly eclipsed the 1,200-yard mark while scoring 11 TDs and returns as the top tailback in the league. Watson may find himself in a similar situation in the years ahead, as he dazzled, much like Brown, throughout his debut season — compiling 597 yards in only 67 carries with an average of 8.9 yards per touch.

If it were not for the woeful defensive performances a year ago, perhaps this team could have landed even higher in the ACC media poll and broken into the back half of the AP poll. And it isn't a given that improvements show up. In order not to waste what will be yet another potent offense under Jeff Brohm, the secondary will need to take a step forward after getting gashed for over 230 yards per game. Most of that backend experience is now gone — and of the seven new defensive backs acquired in the portal, only one comes from a Power Four program. The offense will fly high against the vast majority of teams on the schedule, but the defense will be the make-or-break factor.

8. Florida State:

This season can't go much worse than the last….Right?

After an ugly 2-10 season, Mike Norvell's team looks to be much improved after stringing together a top 10 portal class, including former Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos, who likely gave the FSU public relations staff multiple headaches with his trash talking of Alabama ahead of the two teams colliding in Week 1.

On the field, Castellanos helped elevate BC's offense the past two seasons – throwing for 3,614 yards and 33 TDs in his two seasons. He'll have proven talent at wideout with the 'Noles in receivers Squirrell White and Duce Robinson, and a much improved front with Mike Norvell securing multiple highly sought after guys from Power Four schools after a horrendous season from the offensive line in '24. Improvement seems inevitable, but we'll learn a lot about this team's ceiling and overall talent level in the opener against the Tide.

9. NC State:

There was real hype for the Wolfpack to reach the CFP last August, but it never came close to fruition throughout their six loss regular season.

Promise and excitement loom over this team ahead of CJ Bailey's first offseason as the true starter, despite playing in all but one game as a true freshman. That season of experience will be put to the test with the loss of KC Concepcion to the transfer portal. Tight end Justin Joly and receiver Noah Rogers led the team in receiving yards a year ago, and both return; however, how this offense compensates for the loss of one of the best wide receivers in the country is a major question mark.

The talent and raw ability of Bailey should be enough to keep this team right around the six win mark, but the defense is where the concern level is highest. Things will look different – and likely much better – under new coordinator DJ Eliot after his stint as an analyst at Baylor. He'll be tasked with improving a defense that couldn't have been much worse among ACC teams. The Wolfpack allowed the second most points of any ACC defense and the fourth most touchdowns. Sean Brown returns after leading the team with 96 tackles and should be one of the best athletes in the country, but he'll need help around him, particularly in the secondary.

Dave Doeren's teams have stayed relatively consistent throughout the years, anywhere from six to nine has been the sweet spot, with Wolfpack fans certainly looking for that big-time year where the program breaks into the upper echelon of the league. 2025 won't be that year, but this team will find a way to still go bowling.

10. Virginia:

This is by far the deepest roster Elliott and co. Have had — and it's not particularly close — but does it have the top-end talent to compete for a spot towards the top of the ACC?

The 'Hoos upgraded at nearly every position thanks to the transfer portal. Veteran QB Chandler Morris comes over from North Texas, after lighting up the American Conference in 2024, and is set to command an offense fueled by a deeper, more balanced crop of receivers led by speedsters Cam Ross and Trell Harris, in addition to Notre Dame transfer Jayden Thomas. Amidst the well-documented transfer hype, linebackers Kam Robinson, James Jackson, and Trey McDonald all return up the middle as a battle-tested unit that was an underrated win for UVA to retain in its entirety this offseason. Reports have mentioned Robinson sustained an injury during camp and is likely to miss at least a couple games, though it is unknown exactly how long that timeline will be.

After two years of rough slates, the 2025 schedule is Charmin-soft with the 'Hoos avoiding Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame, SMU, and Georgia Tech, and includes seven games at home inside Scott Stadium. A better roster, combined with the perfect timing of a weaker schedule, makes the need for tangible results all the more critical.

Moral victories won't cut it this year, and rightfully so. It's a must-win year for a coaching staff that likely needs — at a bare minimum — six wins and one over the Hokies, to show progress to the fanbase and decision-makers that things are truly headed in the right direction, especially given the resources poured into the program throughout the offseason.

Anywhere from six to eight wins feels plausible, and strongly depends on the 'Hoos playing with discipline and eliminating the game-changing mistakes fans have seen far too often throughout Elliott's tenure.

2025 ACC Football Predictions: Clemson's Title To Lose? Can Miami Finally Get It Done?

It was in this column a year ago that I regrettably predicted Florida State to go 10-2 and win the ACC. Whoops.

This year's preseason favorite, Clemson, is more experienced across the board and is led by one of the nation's top returning quarterbacks, Cade Klubnik. But I'm surprised just how much hype Dabo Swinney's team is getting. The Tigers lost to all three of their SEC opponents last season (Georgia, South Carolina and Texas in the CFP) in a down year for that conference.

Miami has a shot if 2025 Carson Beck looks like 2023 Carson Beck. SMU isn't going away. But the 17-team conference may have only three or so Top 25 teams. After that, it's a lot of programs looking to avoid or escape mediocrity.

ACC championship: Clemson over Miami

Thoughts on top contenders

Clemson: This should be Dabo's most talented team since 2020, led by high-end NFL prospects Klubnik, wide receiver Antonio Williams, defensive linemen T.J. Parker and Peter Woods and CB Avieon Terrell. My big concern is at running back, following the departure of Phil Mafah. Converted receiver Adam Randall was the top option coming out of spring.

Miami: It's CFP or bust at this point for Mario Cristobal after Miami spent north of $3 million to land Georgia's Beck to succeed No. 1 pick Cam Ward. The core consists of recruits who've been in the program for three or four years. But much is riding on former Minnesota DC Corey Hetherman fixing that side of the ball.

Duke: Folks are sleeping on Manny Diaz's team despite the Blue Devils winning nine games last year. Former Tulane QB Darian Mensah, another $3 million-plus guy, should be a notable upgrade from Maalik Murphy. The O-line is mostly intact. And the defense, which ranked No. 3 in the ACC last year, is made up largely of seniors.

Pitt: The Panthers are my surprise ACC team (Hopefully, they fare better than Virginia Tech last year.) Pitt's implosion after a 7-0 start was due in large part to injuries. QB Eli Holstein could thrive in his second season with OC Kade Bell, and RB Desmond Reid is a big-time playmaker. However, they will still lose one game they shouldn't.

SMU: What a remarkable accomplishment for Rhett Lashlee's team to go 8-0 in ACC play during its first year after moving up from the Group of 5. QB Kevin Jennings' return bodes well for the Mustangs, who will field another explosive offense, but I fear they could take a step back on defense. They're replacing three stud D-linemen who combined for 21.5 sacks.

Thoughts on two other notable teams

North Carolina: I have no idea what to expect from Bill Belichick's first team. It's an entirely different set of characters, playing for an entirely different coaching staff with an entirely different philosophy than Mack Brown's. I went with 6-6, but anything from 9-3 to 3-9 would not surprise me.

Florida State: I also have no idea how much Mike Norvell's team will improve, but I'm not optimistic it will be drastic. Hiring Gus Malzahn as OC was … interesting. His offense will consist almost entirely of transfers, most notably QB Thomas Castellanos, who got benched at Boston College last year. I'm skeptical they reach a bowl game.

Some quick thoughts on hot-seat coaches

Virginia's Tony Elliott: After two abysmal seasons, the Cavs showed some life in winning three ACC games last year. But they'll be largely starting over on offense. QB Chandler Morris is a big name, but he's now at his fourth school. A bowl game seems unlikely.

Virginia Tech's Brent Pry: I jumped on the Hokies' bandwagon last year, picking them to go 10-2, only to watch them finish 6-7. They still have QB Kyron Drones to build around, but unfortunately for Pry, it's looking like that 7-6 team two years ago was the high point.

Cal's Justin Wilcox. The ninth-year coach has been hovering around .500 virtually the entire time. Now he's got a new boss, GM, Ron Rivera, who might not be as patient, and his offense got wiped out in the spring portal window. It's now or never.

Meanwhile, Stanford interim coach Frank Reich already knows he'll be out at the end of the season. The Cardinal, playing with house money, may well surprise some folks.

(Photos of Mario Cristobal, left and Cade Klubnik: Alex Hicks / USA Today Network ; Jasen Vinlove / Imagn Images)

2025 College Football Predictions: Undervalued Temple Will Win AAC

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The AAC is going to be a gauntlet in 2025.

Although they didn't send a representative to the College Football Playoff last year, the AAC has no less than six potential candidates in 2025, with Tulane leading the pack.

The Green Wave are the favorites to win the AAC, and their +750 odds to make the College Football Playoff trail only Boise State (+190) when it comes to G5 teams.

But Tulane has plenty of company at the top of the betting board in the AAC. Navy, UTSA, Memphis, and Army are all between +350 and +600 to win the conference, and they're all considered viable threats to get to the dance.

2025 AAC odds Team Odds Tulane +300 Navy +350 UTSA +500 Memphis +550 Army +600 South Florida +600 North Texas 14/1 East Carolina 18/1 Rice 75/1 FAU 100/1 UAB 100/1 Charlotte 150/1 Temple 150/1 Tulsa 150/1 Odds via bet365 2025 AAC preview, picks, and best bets The Favorite

Tulane was expected to have a down year in 2024 following the departure of head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, but they put together a strong campaign that saw the Green Wave get to the conference championship, where they lost to Army.

The Green Wave comes into Year 2 under Jon Sumrall with heightened expectations, but there are plenty of questions about whether or not this team can meet them.

Not only do they have plenty of tough competition in the conference, but they'll need to replace eight starters from last year's overachieving unit.

Blake Horvath of Navy. AP

Tulane did work effectively in the transfer portal, but the lack of continuity for the betting favorite in a deep conference is a red flag.

Navy, the second favorite, is a team I want to back for a big year in 2025, but I think the best way to do that is to bet on quarterback Blake Horvath to win the Heisman as a massive 500/1 long shot. If the Midshipmen are in the mix for the conference and/or Playoff, it means Horvath is putting up big numbers.

All three of UTSA, Memphis, and Army are going to get plenty of love from bettors and the media, and the Tigers are the most intriguing of that trio, but the prices are just too short in this gauntlet.

Dark horses

The market does seem to have some love for North Texas in Year 3 under Eric Morris.

The Mean Green had some success with an explosive, risk-happy offense in 2024, but the defense was a shambles and will need a complete overhaul to make their offensive output stand up.

North Texas addressed the issue by bringing in Sam Houston State's defensive coordinator and plenty of his players from an impressive defense last year, but we'll see how the former BearKats step up in this new environment.

There are some sharp bettors who believe that North Texas can be a rabblerouser in the AAC, but the number has been slashed too much to be interesting.

Betting on College Football? Long shots

There are a couple of massive long shots in the AAC, including one or two that could be more perky than their odds suggest.

The first one to monitor is Tulsa.

There's been a little bit of love for the Golden Hurricane as a potential moonshot in the AAC thanks to the arrival of head coach Tre Lamb.

A 35-year-old offensive whiz who led Gardner-Webb to the FCS Playoffs two years in a row before turning around ETSU, Lamb will be tasked with making the Golden Hurricane relevant again.

The way to do that is to outscore their opponents, as the defense will be a real project.

Tulsa was hanging out at 300/1 earlier this summer, which would get some couch money if it pops back up there.

The other long shot that could provide quite a ride is Temple.

K.C. Keeler takes over in Philadelphia after leading Sam Houston State to an FCS Championship and then leading their successful transition into a decent Group of 5 program.

Keeler now returns to the region of the country where he burst onto the scene by leading Delaware to an FCS Title in 2003.

Keeler simply wins everywhere he goes.

Best bets for the AAC

Temple to win the AAC (200/1, FanDuel)

This is a bet on a terrific coach at a massive price.

It seems like every year we see a first-year coach have a massive impact on his new program in the Group of 5, and Temple could be the team that makes a leap under Keeler.

In a conference that should see everyone at the top beat up on one another, there could be a path for a team like Temple to get on a roll and surprise everyone.

Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, gives Temple with a 2.2 percent chance of winning the AAC, and while that isn't much to go off of, it's better than the 0.5 percent implied probability the Owls have according to their 200/1 odds at FanDuel.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

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